Franklin's most important post for a while, especially if you own shares
http://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/2009/11/as-long-as-silver-and-gold-prices.html
Summary: Shares are near their end, gold needs to stay above 1025$US and Silver 16$US. Gold/Silver ratio probably peaked, silver to dominate from now.
If you are and Aussie, look at stock GOLD and then contemplate ETPMAG.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Sunday, October 25, 2009
The 50% Up is a Lot Less than 50% Down Rule
Lets say the market dropped from Dow 10,000 to Dow 5000 (I do this to make the maths easier) and you have $100K invested in the market. Lets also assume that the market takes 10 years to rise back to 10,000 on the Dow. Lets assume 5 years to get to 7500.
If you do nothing then it will take you 10 years to get back to level (not including dividends or inflation). Thats pretty ordinary if you are retiring soon.
If you sell 25% of your shares at 10,000 and put it in cash 25,000. Now you purchase $25,000 of shares when the DOW reaches 5,000. Lets see what you are worth after 5 years.
Doing nothing
100k * 0.75 = 75k
Selling a quarter.
75k *.75 = 56,250
+
25k*1.5 = 37,500
Total = 93.75k
What is with the 1.5
When a market rises, it only has to regain 50% of the full amount for you to make all your money back if you are in cash when a market falls. ie 50% of 100k is 50,000. 100k though is 100% of 50k going up.
1o Years from Now
So in 10 years time, if you sell 25% of your stock now, you will be better of as follows.
75k + (25k * 2) = $125k
If you do nothing then it will take you 10 years to get back to level (not including dividends or inflation). Thats pretty ordinary if you are retiring soon.
If you sell 25% of your shares at 10,000 and put it in cash 25,000. Now you purchase $25,000 of shares when the DOW reaches 5,000. Lets see what you are worth after 5 years.
Doing nothing
100k * 0.75 = 75k
Selling a quarter.
75k *.75 = 56,250
+
25k*1.5 = 37,500
Total = 93.75k
What is with the 1.5
When a market rises, it only has to regain 50% of the full amount for you to make all your money back if you are in cash when a market falls. ie 50% of 100k is 50,000. 100k though is 100% of 50k going up.
1o Years from Now
So in 10 years time, if you sell 25% of your stock now, you will be better of as follows.
75k + (25k * 2) = $125k
Saturday, October 10, 2009
The Sucker Rally - Bear Trap - Etc Etc
Good articles here to force you to learn all about setting up a stop loss sale price for shares or selling some shares to take a bit of profit.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/10/19/dow-10-000-whats-next/ or here
http://www.etfguide.com/research/222/8/Allow-Me-to-Introduce:-The-Biggest-Sucker-Rally-Since-The-Great-Depression/
If you want to procrastinate about selling shares, make sure that you read Franklins daily update. His shot term predictions are usually pretty good and he also is viewing the situation on a 30 year cycle not from a short term viewpoint.
Another good thing to remember is that if you are in cash when a market falls by 50%, if you then buy into the market at the bottom, it only has to rise half the original fall for you to make a 50% profit.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/10/19/dow-10-000-whats-next/ or here
http://www.etfguide.com/research/222/8/Allow-Me-to-Introduce:-The-Biggest-Sucker-Rally-Since-The-Great-Depression/
If you want to procrastinate about selling shares, make sure that you read Franklins daily update. His shot term predictions are usually pretty good and he also is viewing the situation on a 30 year cycle not from a short term viewpoint.
Another good thing to remember is that if you are in cash when a market falls by 50%, if you then buy into the market at the bottom, it only has to rise half the original fall for you to make a 50% profit.
Friday, October 9, 2009
GOLD GOLD GOLD
If you are a bit worried about what gold stock to purchase after such a sharp rise in US gold stocks, look to the "GOLD" stock/eft on the Aussie Stock exhange. It has barely risen thanks to the pesky super strong A$. But off course if the A$ falls (due to DOW falling), then it should drop at a slower rate giving you a small cushion against the falling ASX. Another stock to look at is Newmont NEM on the Australian stock exchange as it has risen less than NCM and to a lesser extent LGL. This will also help in a slumping DOW/ASX.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
The 5 Month Downtrend on Aussie Gold Price has Snapped
The aussie gold price has broken a 5 month down trend since the start of September up 50$ in 2 days. Lucky I bought silver. Your options are LGL, CXC if it stays below 18.50 and NCM. Since the start of the year NCM and LGL trend together at a rate of 10:1 so LGL looks a little better still. Both have had good reporting seasons. SGX is also an option but read the takeover notes from Eldorado. NEM will be good if the conversion from NEM on the NY stock exchange is favourable. If the Gold stocks jump too high, then switch to GOLD ETF.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Perilya is now a silver play
COEUR D’ALENE, Idaho – July 16, 2009 - Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE, TSX:CDM, ASX:CXC) announced today that it has agreed to sell back to Perilya Limited (“Perilya”), its 100% interest in the silver contained at the Broken Hill mine in Australia for US$55.0 million in cash. Coeur originally purchased this interest from Perilya in September 2005 for $36.9 million. Closing of this transaction is expected to take place on July 31
st
. “By selling its interest, Coeur will further strengthen its balance sheet and enhance its liquidity. Proceeds of the sale will contribute to our growth initiatives, including construction of the final tailings facility at the Kensington gold mine in Alaska.” said Dennis Wheeler, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “This transaction reflects the Company’s strategic transition to large, long life mines that deliver economies of scale and exhibit superior exploration potential.” Since completion of the transaction in 2005, Coeur has received a total of more than 6.1 million ounces of payable silver from the Broken Hill mine. As of March 31, 2009, CDE Australia had recovered approximately 127.1% of the original consideration. As a result of this transaction, the Company expects to realize a gain on the sale of assets in the third quarter of approximately $23.2 million, net of income taxes.
This now makes Perilya's Broken Hill a silver stock, all be it one that has just lost a lot of money on the transaction.
st
. “By selling its interest, Coeur will further strengthen its balance sheet and enhance its liquidity. Proceeds of the sale will contribute to our growth initiatives, including construction of the final tailings facility at the Kensington gold mine in Alaska.” said Dennis Wheeler, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “This transaction reflects the Company’s strategic transition to large, long life mines that deliver economies of scale and exhibit superior exploration potential.” Since completion of the transaction in 2005, Coeur has received a total of more than 6.1 million ounces of payable silver from the Broken Hill mine. As of March 31, 2009, CDE Australia had recovered approximately 127.1% of the original consideration. As a result of this transaction, the Company expects to realize a gain on the sale of assets in the third quarter of approximately $23.2 million, net of income taxes.
This now makes Perilya's Broken Hill a silver stock, all be it one that has just lost a lot of money on the transaction.
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